'Therm' is kind of a fun sounding word. It puts you in mind of the nickname of a friendly trucker you might meet in a diner, or a cartoon thermometer that helps teach kids about energy conservation. And that's what the gas companies want you to think. So instead of reporting the gas you've used in units of cubic feet, they report it to you in Therms (1 Therm = 100 cubic feet of gas).
Back in August I had 6 Therms visit me. A Therm visit costs around $1 (it's been .95 to $1.25 on various bills since August) including the Therm, its delivery cost, and the taxes associated with him. September brought 32 Therms and October 55, so even though I now have more than one Therm a day visiting me, I still haven't noticed them. Then November comes along and my house doesn't feel any more crowded, but I learn that I was visited by 123 Therms.
Up to this point I had not even noticed that there was a gas section on my energy bill, so I call the good people at the energy company to make sure this variation is explained by what seemed like a negligible change in the temperature out of doors or if the Therms were pulling a fast one on me.
I had a delightful conversation with a representative who showed me how I could see DATA of my daily use of electricity and gas online. And they already put it into GRAPHS!
I LOVE DATA AND GRAPHS! An extra hundred or so a month is totally worth it for more data especially data that I can manipulate myself. So I've been making radical changes to the thermostat before I go to bed and then waiting, barely able to keep still like a kid on Christmas eve, for the data changes to show up online.
I'm okay with additional visits from Therm, but I would prefer it if he could start recording his visits hourly. Hourly data is the best.
Wednesday, December 19, 2012
Monday, December 17, 2012
What was to be incendiary
When I discover that my neighbor is cooking meth in his garage, my first concern is not for the poor addicts whose habit he is facilitating, or even for the young people who might be ensnared by those crystals. Rather, my first concern is that when his garage explodes I'm going to lose the better part of my living room. Or when rival cooks cruise by to fill his house with holes, my windows are not too far away. So I am a bit confused that China does not take greater efforts to curb North Korea's nuclear program and missile testing.
Michael Elleman is a Senior Fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and explains that North Korea currently has 3 missiles with a range of over 6,000km (a kilometer is a goofy way of saying about 2/3 of a mile) that could reach the US: the Taepodong-2, Unha-2, and Unha-3 (which was used a few days ago to launch their first satellite into space). However, the part of the US they can reach is Alaska. Now, I'm not saying Alaska is not an important and beloved part of our country. It is very important for the storage of strategic oil and moose reserves, but in that respect it is more like a back shed than the main living area of the house. So I am not too concerned.
It seems to me though, that China should be. Not because of a Looney Toons type mistake where the missile gets aimed in the opposite direction or a missile meant to go one way catches a bad wind and fades back towards China (though I don't rule these out), but because if missiles start flying out of Korea, then the targets of those places are going to return the favor, and before you know it the once peaceful neighborhood with the usual tangible but non-violent tensions has turned into the worst parts of Baltimore or Detroit.
In some ways I get why China doesn't intervene more aggressively. They are not particularly loved throughout the world or in their region, and it helps to have the crazy friend to back you up if things get dicey. But there is a crazy friend ratio to think about, and it is the ratio of crazy to muscle. If your friend is incredibly powerful, then it is okay for them to be super crazy, because he will get into fights he can finish (this is known as The Hulk range of the spectrum). However, if he is weaker than everyone else in the room, but crazy enough to pick fights with them, he is a liability (this is known as the Scrappy Doo range).
North Korea has shown some advancement in their muscle with the rocket successfully launching the satellite. But they have shown a disproportionate increase in crazy by doing it in violation of the United Nations sanctions barring the activities involving ballistic missiles.
Michael Elleman is a Senior Fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and explains that North Korea currently has 3 missiles with a range of over 6,000km (a kilometer is a goofy way of saying about 2/3 of a mile) that could reach the US: the Taepodong-2, Unha-2, and Unha-3 (which was used a few days ago to launch their first satellite into space). However, the part of the US they can reach is Alaska. Now, I'm not saying Alaska is not an important and beloved part of our country. It is very important for the storage of strategic oil and moose reserves, but in that respect it is more like a back shed than the main living area of the house. So I am not too concerned.
It seems to me though, that China should be. Not because of a Looney Toons type mistake where the missile gets aimed in the opposite direction or a missile meant to go one way catches a bad wind and fades back towards China (though I don't rule these out), but because if missiles start flying out of Korea, then the targets of those places are going to return the favor, and before you know it the once peaceful neighborhood with the usual tangible but non-violent tensions has turned into the worst parts of Baltimore or Detroit.
In some ways I get why China doesn't intervene more aggressively. They are not particularly loved throughout the world or in their region, and it helps to have the crazy friend to back you up if things get dicey. But there is a crazy friend ratio to think about, and it is the ratio of crazy to muscle. If your friend is incredibly powerful, then it is okay for them to be super crazy, because he will get into fights he can finish (this is known as The Hulk range of the spectrum). However, if he is weaker than everyone else in the room, but crazy enough to pick fights with them, he is a liability (this is known as the Scrappy Doo range).
North Korea has shown some advancement in their muscle with the rocket successfully launching the satellite. But they have shown a disproportionate increase in crazy by doing it in violation of the United Nations sanctions barring the activities involving ballistic missiles.
Friday, December 14, 2012
What was to be easier
I have been enjoying my new habit of shutting down Outlook and signing out of Messenger while I eat lunch and turn my mind to writing. I find that after the soup is gone and the writing is saved, that I return to the work at hand with less tension and a healthier perspective.
I was looking forward to today as I had been mulling around some ideas of a humorous take on the recent North Korean rocket launch, but as the day progressed and I watched the news feeds populate with the events of the shooting in Connecticut, my sense of humor became increasingly inaccessible and my mind took a more solemn and sadder frame.
From my office today it seems easier to see the future than the present. It seems easy to predict the upcoming legislation on tighter gun controls and school security. It seems easy to see how funds will be moved to providing greater security in our public schools almost certainly to some extent at the cost of education. It seems easy to foresee an increased outflow of students to home, private, or charter schooling; again, at the cost of public education. It seems easy to foresee the candlelight vigils and charities and benefits set up with the focus of mitigating the pain and fallout of this tragedy.
These things seem easy to predict and where my mind seems to be drawn, because I can't imagine the terror in those classrooms or the trauma the children who were near are experiencing. I can't fathom the panic of the families who have children at that school or the sorrow of one who knows they have lost such a beloved life.
I was looking forward to today as I had been mulling around some ideas of a humorous take on the recent North Korean rocket launch, but as the day progressed and I watched the news feeds populate with the events of the shooting in Connecticut, my sense of humor became increasingly inaccessible and my mind took a more solemn and sadder frame.
From my office today it seems easier to see the future than the present. It seems easy to predict the upcoming legislation on tighter gun controls and school security. It seems easy to see how funds will be moved to providing greater security in our public schools almost certainly to some extent at the cost of education. It seems easy to foresee an increased outflow of students to home, private, or charter schooling; again, at the cost of public education. It seems easy to foresee the candlelight vigils and charities and benefits set up with the focus of mitigating the pain and fallout of this tragedy.
These things seem easy to predict and where my mind seems to be drawn, because I can't imagine the terror in those classrooms or the trauma the children who were near are experiencing. I can't fathom the panic of the families who have children at that school or the sorrow of one who knows they have lost such a beloved life.
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
What was to be revisited
A few weeks ago I presented my theory that the rise in obesity is the true cause for the falling crime rate in this country, as those who cannot get out of bed or off the rascal are less likely to go snatching purses or smashing in heads.
But I provided no data to support this argument and this omission has bee gnawing at me. So I became concerned that if this omission continued to gnaw at me it would itself become obese, and I resolve now to correct it.
Borrowing obesity data from my friends at the CDC and crime data from the FBI, I have learned that I was...
Incorrect. It's hard to say, but it feels good to get it out there. Here's what else I learned:
Murder and Obesity
If you live in the state of Mississippi, not only are you criminally liable for a waste of consonants ('Misisipi' would be more economical) you are more likely to be obese than in any other state. You are also more likely to be murdered 3rd only to 1st place District of Columbia (17.5 murders in 100K), and 2nd place Louisiana (11.2 murders in 100K). And D.C. is one of the fittest in the data set with the 4th lowest prevalence of obesity.
Taking a wider view through regression analysis, I see that the opposite of my earlier theory is true. In fact, as the prevalence of obesity increases in a state so does the murder rate. For every four % points of obesity prevalence, another person in a group of 100K loses their life (p-value = .048).
My alternative hypothesis then, is that we chubby fellows are easier to kill. Or, when fit young gangsters draw down in the streets, larger human obstacles are unfortunate collateral damage.
Burglary and Obesity
This part was interesting. Besides murder, no other offense could be predicted based on obesity with any statistical significance except for burglary whose p-value was 0.000. So, there is no visible relationship between obesity and rape, robbery, aggravated assault, property crime, larceny-theft, or motor vehicle theft. But for some reason fat states are burgled states. For every % point of the population that is flagged as obese, 39.6 locations per 100K are burgled.
I dug into whether this was related to the Hamburgler mafia, but so far no leads.
Another possibility is that we chubsters are always going out to eat and while we are ordering the number 4 super-sized, our indented couches and drawers of rings that have long since ceased to fit on our fingers are being spirited away to pawn shops with wide doors.
Future Analysis
I went ahead and admitted to being wrong, but that is only because I want to go to lunch. I am too hungry to finish the analysis, the next step would be to see how changes in obesity by state over time are related to changes in crime rate over time. But instead, I'm going to go see how the levels of my hunger change over the courses of a meal.
But I provided no data to support this argument and this omission has bee gnawing at me. So I became concerned that if this omission continued to gnaw at me it would itself become obese, and I resolve now to correct it.
Borrowing obesity data from my friends at the CDC and crime data from the FBI, I have learned that I was...
Incorrect. It's hard to say, but it feels good to get it out there. Here's what else I learned:
Murder and Obesity
If you live in the state of Mississippi, not only are you criminally liable for a waste of consonants ('Misisipi' would be more economical) you are more likely to be obese than in any other state. You are also more likely to be murdered 3rd only to 1st place District of Columbia (17.5 murders in 100K), and 2nd place Louisiana (11.2 murders in 100K). And D.C. is one of the fittest in the data set with the 4th lowest prevalence of obesity.
Taking a wider view through regression analysis, I see that the opposite of my earlier theory is true. In fact, as the prevalence of obesity increases in a state so does the murder rate. For every four % points of obesity prevalence, another person in a group of 100K loses their life (p-value = .048).
My alternative hypothesis then, is that we chubby fellows are easier to kill. Or, when fit young gangsters draw down in the streets, larger human obstacles are unfortunate collateral damage.
Burglary and Obesity
This part was interesting. Besides murder, no other offense could be predicted based on obesity with any statistical significance except for burglary whose p-value was 0.000. So, there is no visible relationship between obesity and rape, robbery, aggravated assault, property crime, larceny-theft, or motor vehicle theft. But for some reason fat states are burgled states. For every % point of the population that is flagged as obese, 39.6 locations per 100K are burgled.
I dug into whether this was related to the Hamburgler mafia, but so far no leads.
Another possibility is that we chubsters are always going out to eat and while we are ordering the number 4 super-sized, our indented couches and drawers of rings that have long since ceased to fit on our fingers are being spirited away to pawn shops with wide doors.
Future Analysis
I went ahead and admitted to being wrong, but that is only because I want to go to lunch. I am too hungry to finish the analysis, the next step would be to see how changes in obesity by state over time are related to changes in crime rate over time. But instead, I'm going to go see how the levels of my hunger change over the courses of a meal.
Monday, December 10, 2012
What was to be Springtime
I was part of a group of young professionals being spoken to by an older gentlemen who said we were in the springtime of our lives. This sounded wrong to me and the times and the seasons back me up.
In the United states our life expectancy from birth is roughly 78.37 years, assuming our seasons are evenly distributed and spring is the beginning, the springtime of our lives ended before our 20th birthday.
However, I will give the speaker that he wasn't speaking to a random sample of Americans, but rather a more educated subset with higher income potential and likelihood to be married, so the average life expectancy of this group could be pegged closer to 89.73.
Even then, I doubt there was anyone in that group younger than twenty-two and a half, so he was actually speaking to a group in the summer of their lives. In the future I believe it will be this second view of the seasons that I will be referencing as the breakout makes intuitive sense to me.
At 22.43 you have likely identified the final mapping of or completed your undergraduate education. You can see your care-free days behind you. At 44.87 the likelihood of becoming pregnant is below 5%, at this point you can raise only what you plant or transplant. You have your autumn years to finish storing away nuts until winter begins at 67.3 which lands nicely by our standard age of retirement.
So there you have it, now you know the season you are in and can correct any speakers who attempt to employ inappropriate seasonal imagery.
In the United states our life expectancy from birth is roughly 78.37 years, assuming our seasons are evenly distributed and spring is the beginning, the springtime of our lives ended before our 20th birthday.
Even then, I doubt there was anyone in that group younger than twenty-two and a half, so he was actually speaking to a group in the summer of their lives. In the future I believe it will be this second view of the seasons that I will be referencing as the breakout makes intuitive sense to me.
So there you have it, now you know the season you are in and can correct any speakers who attempt to employ inappropriate seasonal imagery.
Friday, December 7, 2012
What was to be broken up
In gross GDP, China will almost definitely surpass the United States as the nation with the largest economy in the next five years, bu the combined output of the European Union will still surpass either of these. So to an outside observer it is puzzling to see Britain distance itself further and further from the continent that absorbs half of its exports (James Bond and Downton Abbey are among the last remaining British exports to the United States). But Britain is behaving like many great ladies in a relationship where She always thought She was out of the other's league.
Continental Europe is not as financially fit as He once was and there seems to be no end to His problems, and the classic move is to focus on the delta from the good times and ignore that on the whole She is still better off with Him than without.
In Her mind that is still reeling from recent sleights where she has had to pick up the check for a few meals when his card was declined, and embarrassed that they won't be able to buy the new car they had been looking at, she imagines a future where He understands why She is leaving Him, and they will still be friends with most of the same benefits at her convenience. After all, who could resist her? But She underestimates the bitterness of a scorned lover.
She thinks that their mutual friends, the car makers and financial services companies with headquarters in her backyard will definitely side with her in the breakup, but gradually they will drift away especially as He recovers. And once He does (and He definitely will) and is back in great shape and She is feeling the sting of making it on Her own, He will take her back. But this is far from assured.
If She is going to leave it had better be because She wants autonomy at almost any cost and is willing to pay the steepest of financial and political prices for it.
Continental Europe is not as financially fit as He once was and there seems to be no end to His problems, and the classic move is to focus on the delta from the good times and ignore that on the whole She is still better off with Him than without.
In Her mind that is still reeling from recent sleights where she has had to pick up the check for a few meals when his card was declined, and embarrassed that they won't be able to buy the new car they had been looking at, she imagines a future where He understands why She is leaving Him, and they will still be friends with most of the same benefits at her convenience. After all, who could resist her? But She underestimates the bitterness of a scorned lover.
She thinks that their mutual friends, the car makers and financial services companies with headquarters in her backyard will definitely side with her in the breakup, but gradually they will drift away especially as He recovers. And once He does (and He definitely will) and is back in great shape and She is feeling the sting of making it on Her own, He will take her back. But this is far from assured.
If She is going to leave it had better be because She wants autonomy at almost any cost and is willing to pay the steepest of financial and political prices for it.
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